Where we got it right
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What you might say against our
success claim
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We concluded our first comment in 2013 as follows:
“AE: And how do you think the economy will eventually react to the
revamping of the entitlement programs in the US?
Nd: Well, the necessary reduction here will likely stall somewhat the
nascent recovery which we have seen developing in the last couple of
months. But that is something we will have to deal with. And we, i.e. the
world economy, will be able to do that.
AE: So you do not expect a prolonged period of stagnation or even a
recession for the US economy?
Nd: No, we would rather expect a continued period of slow growth”
In other words, we started the year mildly optimistic and never
changed that sentiment in the course of 2013. If we, hence,
were to quantify the value added of our speculative work, we
could argue that we generated a 29.6 % value increase last
year. Because that is what the S&P 500-Index gained
throughout 2013.
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It is obviously a lot easier to determine
a general market sentiment rather than
trying to replicate an index growth by
picking individual stocks or assets.
Consequently, the 29.6 % value added
claim of Noah denkt™ needs to be put
in perspective
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Despite all the drama and anguish the fiscal cliff and the budget
sequester got some what resolved, - just as we predicted
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Well, the can got only kicked down the
road. The main issue of entitlement
reform continues to be unresolved
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Right from the start we had criticized Germany’s lackluster
support for France’s intervention in Mali. That intervention is
now generally being seen as a success story.
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No objection
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On the Mali issue we had also proposed engaging the Tuareg
element inside the Islamist insurgency in order to find a more
sustainable peace in that country. It seems to us that this has
by and large happened.
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The collaboration with peace-minded
Tuareg rebels is still quite timid.
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We supported the idea of Trans-Atlantic Free Trade
Agreement. Negotiations on that have now begun.
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That was a no-brainer.
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We continuously defended the austerity politics of the EU
against its Keynesian critics. This austerity politics slowly
generating an economic upturn in countries like Spain and
Ireland.
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True. But Noah denkt™ also said that
the failure to expel Greece from the
Eurozone would eventually wreak havoc
to the sustainability of the EURO. That
hasn’t happened though, has it?
And it also needs to be acknowledged
that Noah denkt™ was and continues
to be only lukewarm about the
sustainability of the central bank
funded recovery in the US
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We firmly argued against voices in Germany that propagated a
split-up of the Euro into a Northern and Southern Euro. Gladly,
this proposal has substantially lost support by now.
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The AFD continuous to be political
force to be reckoned with.
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While being very critical of Mr. Hollande’s leadership quality we
also professed in early April that the worst might now be over as
far as his political errors are concerned. And the French
economy has in deed improved during the rest of the year.
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France’s recovery continues to be timid.
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We felt that North Korea’s warmongering doesn’t need to be
taken all that serious. So far, that assessment has proved
correct.
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That was a no-brainer, too
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Noah denkt™ also defended the decision by the Egyptian army
to depose the elected President Mursi. And although the Muslim
Brotherhood continues to violently oppose that toppling of Mr.
Mursi, it appears as if the general public in Egypt is acquiescing
to the military’s move.
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This is a pretty daring interpretation. No
one knows what the wider Egyptian
public really thinks.
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We firmly opposed a military “shot across the bow in Syria” as
initially advocated by President Obama. Happily, that hasn’t
happened.
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Well done!
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Earlier in 2012, we had called for a measure that would reign in
the behemoth like power that some big banks have. Eventually
a new Volcker Rule was passed in the US
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While being in synch with limiting the
scope of banking empires, Noah
denkt™ continues to be skeptical about
the quality of that new Volcker Rule.
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As far back as 2008, we had argued that financial regulation
alone won’t be able to assure the soundness of financial
markets. Now, the SEC had to admit that it won’t be able to
prosecute some big banks for their dubious role in the sub-
prime bubble.
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Noah denkt™’s general stance here is
a no-brainer as well.
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