Project for Philosophical Evaluations of the Economy |
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This is much rather a buying than a selling opportunity
Dialog with the Alter Ego on the Japan sell-off, drafted and published on March 15, 2011
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Question by Alter Ego of Noah denkt™ (AE): Well, the Libya turmoil and its negative effect on the oil price haven’t
led Noah denkt™ to give up its bullishness. Does the current stock market sell-off in connection with the
Japanese earthquake have an impact on your overall stance on the economy?
Answer by Noah denkt™ (Nd): No, we continue to hold on to our investments. In fact, we would even be inclined to
view the current situation as more of a buying than a selling opportunity.
AE: Why is that?
Nd: Because of two things: First, it appears to us as if the historic emergency that Japan is submerged into now,
will offer it a unique opportunity to turn around the lackluster economy that it has been suffering from for two
decades now. After all, it is true that there is no other country in this world that can better dedicate itself to a
monumental challenge than Japan is. So do not forget that Japan’s cultural heritage is built on the Samurai idea
of sacrifice, discipline and resilience. And trust us, therefore, when we say that Japan will come back much
stronger from this than it has been before because the current crisis will help it to reconnect with its ancient
reservoir of determination that may have been somewhat dormant in recent years.
AE: Okay, let’s forget for a second that it will take years before this rebuilding effort will, if at all, make itself felt in
the economy, and listen instead to your second argument.
Nd: Well, our second argument in favor of our buying theory is that we believe that the current fear of a nuclear
meltdown in some of the affected nuclear power plants is overdone. Certainly, this is a serious situation. But if we
can believe the experts (see among others César Molins of the American Nuclear Society in El Pais of March 14, page 8), the
current problems will likely not turn into a second Chernobyl disaster because the interior capsules of the
Japanese plants are way stronger than they were back when.
AE: And you believe of all that?
Nd: Yes, we do.
AE: Obviously, we can’t comment on the technical side of things because we have not the slightest clue about
physics, engineering and all the other issues involved here.
Nd: True. But we have an intuition. And that intuition tells us that the current meltdown fears in the stock market
are overdone.
AE: Be that as it may. Let’s better come back to your first assertion according to which Japan will come back
stronger from this. What do you say to the observation that it will take years before all this rebuilding will make
itself felt in the international economy?
Nd: Well, we do not believe the Japanese comeback will take as long as you think it will.
AE: Why is that?
Nd: Because we are convinced that there the turbo-charged speed in which the world is operating nowadays will
also make itself felt this time around.
AE: That’s a very abstract observation, though. It doesn’t take into account at all the already fragile state of the
Japanese economy as it is, let alone the deflationary despair that is reigning elsewhere in the world.
Nd: It is true that the obvious evidence here seems to support a more pessimistic view of things. But as you well
know, we are of the opinion that the most obvious evidence all too often leads you into the wrong direction.
AE: Which is equally true for the not so obvious, if not to say, mystical evidence that you tend to rely on!
Nd: Well, let’s wait and see which of our two interpretations will eventually turn out to be more accurate.
AE: Yes, let’s do that.
Dialog with the Alter Ego on the Japan sell-off, drafted and published on March 15, 2011
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Question by Alter Ego of Noah denkt™ (AE): Well, the Libya turmoil and its negative effect on the oil price haven’t
led Noah denkt™ to give up its bullishness. Does the current stock market sell-off in connection with the
Japanese earthquake have an impact on your overall stance on the economy?
Answer by Noah denkt™ (Nd): No, we continue to hold on to our investments. In fact, we would even be inclined to
view the current situation as more of a buying than a selling opportunity.
AE: Why is that?
Nd: Because of two things: First, it appears to us as if the historic emergency that Japan is submerged into now,
will offer it a unique opportunity to turn around the lackluster economy that it has been suffering from for two
decades now. After all, it is true that there is no other country in this world that can better dedicate itself to a
monumental challenge than Japan is. So do not forget that Japan’s cultural heritage is built on the Samurai idea
of sacrifice, discipline and resilience. And trust us, therefore, when we say that Japan will come back much
stronger from this than it has been before because the current crisis will help it to reconnect with its ancient
reservoir of determination that may have been somewhat dormant in recent years.
AE: Okay, let’s forget for a second that it will take years before this rebuilding effort will, if at all, make itself felt in
the economy, and listen instead to your second argument.
Nd: Well, our second argument in favor of our buying theory is that we believe that the current fear of a nuclear
meltdown in some of the affected nuclear power plants is overdone. Certainly, this is a serious situation. But if we
can believe the experts (see among others César Molins of the American Nuclear Society in El Pais of March 14, page 8), the
current problems will likely not turn into a second Chernobyl disaster because the interior capsules of the
Japanese plants are way stronger than they were back when.
AE: And you believe of all that?
Nd: Yes, we do.
AE: Obviously, we can’t comment on the technical side of things because we have not the slightest clue about
physics, engineering and all the other issues involved here.
Nd: True. But we have an intuition. And that intuition tells us that the current meltdown fears in the stock market
are overdone.
AE: Be that as it may. Let’s better come back to your first assertion according to which Japan will come back
stronger from this. What do you say to the observation that it will take years before all this rebuilding will make
itself felt in the international economy?
Nd: Well, we do not believe the Japanese comeback will take as long as you think it will.
AE: Why is that?
Nd: Because we are convinced that there the turbo-charged speed in which the world is operating nowadays will
also make itself felt this time around.
AE: That’s a very abstract observation, though. It doesn’t take into account at all the already fragile state of the
Japanese economy as it is, let alone the deflationary despair that is reigning elsewhere in the world.
Nd: It is true that the obvious evidence here seems to support a more pessimistic view of things. But as you well
know, we are of the opinion that the most obvious evidence all too often leads you into the wrong direction.
AE: Which is equally true for the not so obvious, if not to say, mystical evidence that you tend to rely on!
Nd: Well, let’s wait and see which of our two interpretations will eventually turn out to be more accurate.
AE: Yes, let’s do that.
| © Landei Selbstverlag, owned by Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards, Gerolstein, Germany. All rights reserved. Reminder: Noah denkt™ is a project of Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards and his Landei Selbstverlag (WL & his LSV). Consequently, all rights to the texts that have been published under the Noah denkt™brand name are reserved by WL & his LSV. The commentary and the reasoning that was provided on this page is for informational and/or educational purposes only and it is not intended to provide tax, legal or investment advice. It should therefore not be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security or any issuer by WL & his LSV or its Noah denkt™ Project. In fact, WL & his LSV encourage the user to understand that he alone is responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy is appropriate or suitable for him. And to leave no doubt as to what this means we urge our user to also note our extended Legal Notice. |
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| Keywords: Japanese earthquake, sell-off in stock markets after the Japanese earthquake, financial consequences of the Japanese earthquake, economic consequences of the Japanese earthquake, comeback of the Japanese economy, economic implications of the Japanese earthquake, how to invest after the Japanese earthquake |