Project for Philosophical Evaluations of the Economy |
__________________________________________________________________________________________
It would be a disgrace to sell now
Dialog with the Alter Ego on the stock market implications of the Arab uprising,
drafted and published on Feb. 24, 2011
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Question by Alter Ego of Noah denkt™ (AE): You have promised to keep us posted as to when you would be
willing to change your sentiment and go bearish on the economy. The question, at this time, therefore is, whether
you would be prepared to take money off the table now and rake in the profits that you have generated with your
stocks so far?.
Answer by Noah denkt™ (Nd): You are implying that we should sell because of the oil price explosion which the
Arab uprising in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and elsewhere has brought about?
AE: Correct!
Nd: No, we think that it would be a disgrace to run for cover now, while others are risking their lives to get what we
always presented to them as being desirable.
AE: But don’t you think that the oil price explosion will endanger the timid and nascent economic recovery which
are witnessing now? After all, it is not at all unlikely that these uprisings will eventually spread to places like Saudi
Arabia and the Emirates. And once that happens the world economy will truly have a hard time to absorb the
shocks which the ensuing price hikes will wreak.
Nd: That may all be correct. But the main issue here for us is to not betray the noble aspiration of these brave
people in the Arab world who finally want to see their human rights respected.
AE: But why would it be a betrayal of the Arab protesters to protect your savings in circumstances like these?
Nd: Because by participating in the current sell-off you are doing your part in spreading fear. And so it’s only fair
to claim that you are going to be co- responsible for the damage that this loss of faith is doing to the recovery
prospects of our world economy. And we do not need to stress here that all of us, including the protesters in
Arabia, are dependent on this recovery.
AE: But is it reasonable to take losses if you can avoid them?
Nd: Well, the brave opposition in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and elsewhere did just that.
AE: They though had a clear short-term goal in sight. You, however, hang in there because you are hoping that
one day, who knows when, the global market place will recover from the present oil price shock.
Nd: So you do not think that we all will be able to benefit from the fact that the political systems in the Arab world
will be more democratic and that they will provide more opportunities to their people?
AE: That’s beside the point. The point is that we do not know when these new systems will finally come about. And
neither do we know how stable and well organized they will eventually turn out to be.
Nd: In other words, you would have preferred that these uprisings never had taken place to begin with?
AE: Well, we would have preferred a more orderly transition which would have given the political parties in the
region more time to develop both their programs and their organizational base.
Nd: History isn’t a call-in show though! So you do have to make do with what is available.
AE: Correct! And that’s why we would argue to run for shelter now.
Nd: No, we think that this would be morally wrong and that this would hamper our future ability to interpret the
markets adequately.
AE: So you stay stubborn here?
Nd: Yes, we do.
Dialog with the Alter Ego on the stock market implications of the Arab uprising,
drafted and published on Feb. 24, 2011
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Question by Alter Ego of Noah denkt™ (AE): You have promised to keep us posted as to when you would be
willing to change your sentiment and go bearish on the economy. The question, at this time, therefore is, whether
you would be prepared to take money off the table now and rake in the profits that you have generated with your
stocks so far?.
Answer by Noah denkt™ (Nd): You are implying that we should sell because of the oil price explosion which the
Arab uprising in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and elsewhere has brought about?
AE: Correct!
Nd: No, we think that it would be a disgrace to run for cover now, while others are risking their lives to get what we
always presented to them as being desirable.
AE: But don’t you think that the oil price explosion will endanger the timid and nascent economic recovery which
are witnessing now? After all, it is not at all unlikely that these uprisings will eventually spread to places like Saudi
Arabia and the Emirates. And once that happens the world economy will truly have a hard time to absorb the
shocks which the ensuing price hikes will wreak.
Nd: That may all be correct. But the main issue here for us is to not betray the noble aspiration of these brave
people in the Arab world who finally want to see their human rights respected.
AE: But why would it be a betrayal of the Arab protesters to protect your savings in circumstances like these?
Nd: Because by participating in the current sell-off you are doing your part in spreading fear. And so it’s only fair
to claim that you are going to be co- responsible for the damage that this loss of faith is doing to the recovery
prospects of our world economy. And we do not need to stress here that all of us, including the protesters in
Arabia, are dependent on this recovery.
AE: But is it reasonable to take losses if you can avoid them?
Nd: Well, the brave opposition in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and elsewhere did just that.
AE: They though had a clear short-term goal in sight. You, however, hang in there because you are hoping that
one day, who knows when, the global market place will recover from the present oil price shock.
Nd: So you do not think that we all will be able to benefit from the fact that the political systems in the Arab world
will be more democratic and that they will provide more opportunities to their people?
AE: That’s beside the point. The point is that we do not know when these new systems will finally come about. And
neither do we know how stable and well organized they will eventually turn out to be.
Nd: In other words, you would have preferred that these uprisings never had taken place to begin with?
AE: Well, we would have preferred a more orderly transition which would have given the political parties in the
region more time to develop both their programs and their organizational base.
Nd: History isn’t a call-in show though! So you do have to make do with what is available.
AE: Correct! And that’s why we would argue to run for shelter now.
Nd: No, we think that this would be morally wrong and that this would hamper our future ability to interpret the
markets adequately.
AE: So you stay stubborn here?
Nd: Yes, we do.
| © Landei Selbstverlag, owned by Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards, Gerolstein, Germany. All rights reserved. Reminder: Noah denkt™ is a project of Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards and his Landei Selbstverlag (WL & his LSV). Consequently, all rights to the texts that have been published under the Noah denkt™brand name are reserved by WL & his LSV. The commentary and the reasoning that was provided on this page is for informational and/or educational purposes only and it is not intended to provide tax, legal or investment advice. It should therefore not be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security or any issuer by WL & his LSV or its Noah denkt™ Project. In fact, WL & his LSV encourage the user to understand that he alone is responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy is appropriate or suitable for him. And to leave no doubt as to what this means we urge our user to also note our extended Legal Notice. |
__________________________________________________________________________________________
| Keywords: Arab uprising, uprising in the Arab world, revolution in the Arab world, economic implications of uprisings in the Arab world, unrest in the Arab world, contagion fears in the Arab world, oil price shock, oil price hikes, democracy in the Arab world, stability in the Arab world |