Project for Philosophical Evaluations of the Economy |
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Thinking about Wells Fargo Bank
Q&A between Noah denkt™ and its Alter Ego, first drafted on Aug. 26, published on Aug. 29, 2008
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Question from Alter Ego of Noah denkt™ (AE): Is it true what I have heard that Noah denkt™ is about to issue a
stockpick recommendation for Wells Fargo Bank?
Answer by Noah denkt™ (Nd): Yes.
AE: And why is that?
Nd: Because we believe that it is time to now build the positions that will allow you to benefit from the next
economic upswing once that kicks in.
AE: But doesn’t this assertion of yours contradict your earlier advice (see: “A strategic Masterpiece”) according to
which the next upswing will only lay the ground for a bigger downturn after that? Or do you think that Wells Fargo
is a recession-proof stock along the lines of the New York Times?
Nd: Well, it is somewhat of a recession-proof stock. After all, it has been around for a long time. And what’s more,
it is also a saving bank. And so it probably won’t fall too much victim of the next trendy fad that is going to develop
in the banking sector. - First and foremost though, this recommendation of ours is inspired by a continuous need
to demonstrate our relevant forecasting capability. For too much do we have to reassert our judgement
superiority all the time, that we could now permit ourselves to not do this here.
AE: In other words, this is a completely opportunistic call that Noah denkt™ is making here?
Nd: You could say that. Of course, we still believe that none of the structural problems have been resolved which
have caused the current downturn. And so we are still convinced that the next upswing will be a shallow one. For
too little has your standard career wisdom been brought to its knees yet, (see: “When will the recession end?”) that we
could already want to truly bet on it.
AE: Okay. But how do you reconcile your Wells Fargo stock-pick with your analysis according to which banking
people can never get the big calls right (see: “How can anyone suggest that ..)?
Nd: Well, we would argue that it still is a while before the next big call is due.
AE: And so you are prepared to push aside one of your core principals which is never to believe that you can
predict turning points correctly?
Nd: You are right, in this case we are somehow violating our own principles. But then again, are we supposed to
sit idle here and wait until our big picture predictions come true before we can reenter the stock-pick space?
AE: Well, if your were as consequential as you pretend to be (see: www.jesussirach.com), you would do that?
Nd: Perhaps you have a point there.
AE: So will you then go ahead with publishing the Wells Fargo recommendation?
Nd: No, let’s not do it then. Let’s instead put this conversation on our website. After all, it somewhat illustrates the
publication dilemma that we are currently in.
AE: Okay, sounds like a good idea.
Nd: Glad, you like it.
Q&A between Noah denkt™ and its Alter Ego, first drafted on Aug. 26, published on Aug. 29, 2008
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Question from Alter Ego of Noah denkt™ (AE): Is it true what I have heard that Noah denkt™ is about to issue a
stockpick recommendation for Wells Fargo Bank?
Answer by Noah denkt™ (Nd): Yes.
AE: And why is that?
Nd: Because we believe that it is time to now build the positions that will allow you to benefit from the next
economic upswing once that kicks in.
AE: But doesn’t this assertion of yours contradict your earlier advice (see: “A strategic Masterpiece”) according to
which the next upswing will only lay the ground for a bigger downturn after that? Or do you think that Wells Fargo
is a recession-proof stock along the lines of the New York Times?
Nd: Well, it is somewhat of a recession-proof stock. After all, it has been around for a long time. And what’s more,
it is also a saving bank. And so it probably won’t fall too much victim of the next trendy fad that is going to develop
in the banking sector. - First and foremost though, this recommendation of ours is inspired by a continuous need
to demonstrate our relevant forecasting capability. For too much do we have to reassert our judgement
superiority all the time, that we could now permit ourselves to not do this here.
AE: In other words, this is a completely opportunistic call that Noah denkt™ is making here?
Nd: You could say that. Of course, we still believe that none of the structural problems have been resolved which
have caused the current downturn. And so we are still convinced that the next upswing will be a shallow one. For
too little has your standard career wisdom been brought to its knees yet, (see: “When will the recession end?”) that we
could already want to truly bet on it.
AE: Okay. But how do you reconcile your Wells Fargo stock-pick with your analysis according to which banking
people can never get the big calls right (see: “How can anyone suggest that ..)?
Nd: Well, we would argue that it still is a while before the next big call is due.
AE: And so you are prepared to push aside one of your core principals which is never to believe that you can
predict turning points correctly?
Nd: You are right, in this case we are somehow violating our own principles. But then again, are we supposed to
sit idle here and wait until our big picture predictions come true before we can reenter the stock-pick space?
AE: Well, if your were as consequential as you pretend to be (see: www.jesussirach.com), you would do that?
Nd: Perhaps you have a point there.
AE: So will you then go ahead with publishing the Wells Fargo recommendation?
Nd: No, let’s not do it then. Let’s instead put this conversation on our website. After all, it somewhat illustrates the
publication dilemma that we are currently in.
AE: Okay, sounds like a good idea.
Nd: Glad, you like it.
| © Landei Selbstverlag, owned by Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards, Gerolstein, Germany. All rights reserved. Reminder: Noah denkt™ is a project of Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards and his Landei Selbstverlag (WL & his LSV). Consequently, all rights to the texts that have been published under the Noah denkt™brand name are reserved by WL & his LSV. The commentary and the reasoning that was provided on this page is for informational and/or educational purposes only and it is not intended to provide tax, legal or investment advice. It should therefore not be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security or any issuer by WL & his LSV or its Noah denkt™ Project. In fact, WL & his LSV encourage the user to understand that he alone is responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy is appropriate or suitable for him. And to leave no doubt as to what this means we urge our user to also note our extended Legal Notice. |
| Conflict of Interest Statement with respect to the Wells Fargo Bank Q: Does Wil Leonards hold shares in Wells Fargo Bank? A: No Q: Has Wil Leonards done consulting work for Wells Fargo Bank? A: No Q: Does he intend to develop a commercial relationship with Wells Fargo Bank? A: No Q: Do members of Wil Leonards' family hold shares in Wells Fargo Bank? A: No Q: Have members of Wil Leonards' family done consulting work for Wells Fargo Bank? A: No Q: Does a member of his family intend to develop a commercial relationship with Wells Fargo Bank? A: No |
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