Project for Philosophical Evaluations of the Economy |
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The US Dollar at 1,55 Euro
Q&A between Noah denkt™ and its Alter Ego, first drafted on March 12, published on March 15, 2008
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Question by Alter Ego of Noah denkt™ (Q): What is Noah denkt™ looking at right now?
Answer by Noah denkt™ (Nd): We are thinking about the state of the US Dollar and whether it would be worth the
while to buy it now.
Q: And what are the pros and cons in this decision making?
Nd: Well, a powerful pro obviously is the fact that the US Dollar is precariously cheap right now. And so it would
seem logical to take advantage of it as the opportunity presents itself. For too much do you have to buy low sell
high, in order to make a fortune, that one could now forego the option that the US currency offers.
Q: And what stands against such a move?
Nd: First, it’s the fact that it is more than likely that the Dollar will go down even more. After all the FED has
already indicated that it will lower interest rates further. And so it is only reasonable to presume that the
greenback will come under additional pressure. For too much has its stability now been undercut that it would not
have to suffer from it even more.
Secondly and more importantly however, we believe that it will still take some further bleeding in the US before its
economy will be able to reinvent itself. And so it is questionable to us, whether it isn’t too much of a long haul to
invest into the US currency now. For too fundamentally will the attitudes have to change that this could happen
rapidly.
Q: But the fact of the matter is that you do believe that the US economy will eventually embark on a solid and
sustained recovery?
Nd. Absolutely. Because, if one thing is for sure then it is the capacity of the US economy to recreate itself. The
problem however is, that we have a hard time to gauge how much on an internal upheaval will be necessary to set
off such a repositioning.
Q: But isn’t some upheaval already going on now. And won’t this eventually spark a renaissance of the US
economy?
Nd. Well, we don’t think that the current turmoil is traumatic enough, to start a real soul searching effort. After all,
the leading players in the US still have not entered into a true 'mea culpa'- mindset. And so it is unlikely that they
will draw the right conclusion from this. For too little contrition have they shown so far that they could hope to
profit from that.
Q: So, if that is your position, why then don’t you then stay on the sidelines until the true judgement day has
arrived?
Nd: Because it is just as impossible to time the end of a downturn as it is to forecast the turning point in a boom
cycle. And so it would make sense to buy the US Dollar now, when it is already somewhat cheap. For too likely is it
that you will otherwise be caught off-guard, that you could now still hope to benefit from that.
Q: Well then, if I summarize your position correctly there really is no other alternative for you but to start buying
the US currency now, and increase your position therein later as its values fades even further. After all, thereby
you will be able to service both your points of view. And so you won’t have to complain about the dilemma that you
are in. For too much will you then have straddled your position that you should now still feel stretched by it.
Nd. Sounds convincing.
Q: And are we going to follow my advice?
Nd. Yes, we think, we will.
Q: Good gracious, this must be the first time that you actually succumb to my judgement. What is going on with
you? Are you loosing your knack?
Nd: No, we don’t think so. It’s just that it is sometimes hard to put your money where your mouth is. And so you
have to apologize us for being somewhat slow these days. For too much are we confronted with ourselves, right
now, that we could resolve that without occasionally being hesitant.
Q: So you are human after all?
Nd. Yes, we are just as fragile as everyone else.
Q: Now don’t get us weeping here?
Nd. Don’ t worry, we will stay away from this.
Q: So are we terminating this discussion?
Nd: Yes, we are, and let us do it fast.
Q: Alright then, see you later.
Nd: Yes, see you later.
Q&A between Noah denkt™ and its Alter Ego, first drafted on March 12, published on March 15, 2008
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Question by Alter Ego of Noah denkt™ (Q): What is Noah denkt™ looking at right now?
Answer by Noah denkt™ (Nd): We are thinking about the state of the US Dollar and whether it would be worth the
while to buy it now.
Q: And what are the pros and cons in this decision making?
Nd: Well, a powerful pro obviously is the fact that the US Dollar is precariously cheap right now. And so it would
seem logical to take advantage of it as the opportunity presents itself. For too much do you have to buy low sell
high, in order to make a fortune, that one could now forego the option that the US currency offers.
Q: And what stands against such a move?
Nd: First, it’s the fact that it is more than likely that the Dollar will go down even more. After all the FED has
already indicated that it will lower interest rates further. And so it is only reasonable to presume that the
greenback will come under additional pressure. For too much has its stability now been undercut that it would not
have to suffer from it even more.
Secondly and more importantly however, we believe that it will still take some further bleeding in the US before its
economy will be able to reinvent itself. And so it is questionable to us, whether it isn’t too much of a long haul to
invest into the US currency now. For too fundamentally will the attitudes have to change that this could happen
rapidly.
Q: But the fact of the matter is that you do believe that the US economy will eventually embark on a solid and
sustained recovery?
Nd. Absolutely. Because, if one thing is for sure then it is the capacity of the US economy to recreate itself. The
problem however is, that we have a hard time to gauge how much on an internal upheaval will be necessary to set
off such a repositioning.
Q: But isn’t some upheaval already going on now. And won’t this eventually spark a renaissance of the US
economy?
Nd. Well, we don’t think that the current turmoil is traumatic enough, to start a real soul searching effort. After all,
the leading players in the US still have not entered into a true 'mea culpa'- mindset. And so it is unlikely that they
will draw the right conclusion from this. For too little contrition have they shown so far that they could hope to
profit from that.
Q: So, if that is your position, why then don’t you then stay on the sidelines until the true judgement day has
arrived?
Nd: Because it is just as impossible to time the end of a downturn as it is to forecast the turning point in a boom
cycle. And so it would make sense to buy the US Dollar now, when it is already somewhat cheap. For too likely is it
that you will otherwise be caught off-guard, that you could now still hope to benefit from that.
Q: Well then, if I summarize your position correctly there really is no other alternative for you but to start buying
the US currency now, and increase your position therein later as its values fades even further. After all, thereby
you will be able to service both your points of view. And so you won’t have to complain about the dilemma that you
are in. For too much will you then have straddled your position that you should now still feel stretched by it.
Nd. Sounds convincing.
Q: And are we going to follow my advice?
Nd. Yes, we think, we will.
Q: Good gracious, this must be the first time that you actually succumb to my judgement. What is going on with
you? Are you loosing your knack?
Nd: No, we don’t think so. It’s just that it is sometimes hard to put your money where your mouth is. And so you
have to apologize us for being somewhat slow these days. For too much are we confronted with ourselves, right
now, that we could resolve that without occasionally being hesitant.
Q: So you are human after all?
Nd. Yes, we are just as fragile as everyone else.
Q: Now don’t get us weeping here?
Nd. Don’ t worry, we will stay away from this.
Q: So are we terminating this discussion?
Nd: Yes, we are, and let us do it fast.
Q: Alright then, see you later.
Nd: Yes, see you later.
| © Landei Selbstverlag, owned by Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards, Gerolstein, Germany. All rights reserved. Reminder: Noah denkt™ is a project of Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards and his Landei Selbstverlag (WL & his LSV). Consequently, all rights to the texts that have been published under the Noah denkt™brand name are reserved by WL & his LSV. The commentary and the reasoning that was provided on this page is for informational and/or educational purposes only and it is not intended to provide tax, legal or investment advice. It should therefore not be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security or any issuer by WL & his LSV or its Noah denkt™ Project. In fact, WL & his LSV encourage the user to understand that he alone is responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy is appropriate or suitable for him. And to leave no doubt as to what this means we urge our user to also note our extended Legal Notice. |
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