Noah denkt™ - The Power of Balanced Reasoning
Putin will lose the standoff with the West anyway
Dialogue with the Alter Ego on the crisis over Crimea, first drafted on March 30,  published on March 31, 2014
Question by Alter Ego of Noah denkt™ (AE): There is a lot of talk now in Western media about the relevance of
the sanctions that the West has imposed against Russia over that country’s invasion of Ukraine. In particular, it
is being questioned whether it makes sense to exclude Russia from the G8-forum when what is needed most
right now is the beginning of a constructive dialogue and not the cutting of ties with Russia. What does Noah
denkt™ make of the debate over the quality of Western sanctions?
Answer by Noah denkt™ (Nd):  Well, clearly it is not so easy to talk constructively with someone who takes
outlandish positions. Take, for instance, Mr. Putin's assertion that
the revolution in Ukraine is illegal because
that country’s constitution doesn't allow for the parliament to depose a sitting President who has been
democratically elected. Isn't it the natural implication of such a view that all revolutions, including the Bolshevik
one in Russia, are to be rejected since they are against the reigning constitution? And wouldn't that also
question the legality of the now defunct Soviet System whose demise has been so vividly deplored by Mr. Putin
himself? - No, no a dialogue makes sense only if all parties concerned feel a certain obligation towards reason
and rationality. If you are, however, dealing with a straight-faced liar (- watch Mr. Putin's allegation that these
aren't Russian troops which have encircled Ukrainian bases in Crimea - ) then you can’t possibly expect that
such talks would lead to a meaningful result.

AE: In other words, Noah denkt™ supports the Western sanctions against Russia?
Nd: Clearly something had to be done to demonstrate that the violation of international law which Russia has
committed in Crimea can not pass with impunity.

AE: Nevertheless, these sanctions won’t make Mr. Putin flinch, will they?    
Nd: Perhaps, they will, perhaps, they won’t. The important thing here is that Mr. Putin will ultimately lose this
standoff with the West anyway. It is just going to take more time that would have been needed
if the West had
reacted more forcefully in this matter right from the start.

AE: Why does Noah denkt™ believe that it is a foregone conclusion that Mr. Putin will ultimately lose out in the
battle over Ukraine?  
Nd. Because it is clear to us that young Russians will ultimately prefer to live a Starbucks-lifestyle of self-
determined cool and chic and not have their aspirations quelled by a strongman leadership of yesteryear. You
just have to watch
the incredible ability of young women in any major Western city to project an image of cool
and confidence to understand that such an allure of freedom cannot be stymied by any old man, be he wise or

AE: Supposedly, the young women in the streets of Moscow and St. Petersburg project a pretty cool image of
self-reliance as well?
Nd: Obviously. And you can be sure that they want more not less of that.

AE: Mr. Putin isn’t forcing them to renege on their aspiration to be trendy and cool?
Nd: Well, Mr. Putin is creating an environment of arbitrary use of power that doesn't exactly encourage people
to believe that you can live your individuality without being harassed for it.

AE: That sounds pretty optimistic.
Is your market sentiment consequently getting bullish again?
Nd: Obviously, you are aware that our views on the economy tend to have an early bird side to it. With that in
mind our answer to your question is: “Yes”.  
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Putin's standoff with the West, Western sanctions against Ukraine, constructive dialogue with Russia over
invasion of Crimea, Western lifestyle in Russia, aspirations of young people in Russia, Coffee shop lifestyle in
Russia, Western cool and confidence in Russia
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