Noah denkt™ - Project
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    to a superior judgment in finance and public policy ...
                                                                       ... "Don't do to others what you don't want them to do to you"...
Quality Control 2013
Published on Jan. 7, 2013

Here is the annual evaluation of our proud forecasting performance in 2013.
Where we got it right
What you might say against our
success claim
We concluded our first comment in 2013 as follows:

“AE: And how do you think the economy will eventually react to the
revamping of the entitlement programs in the US?

Nd: Well, the necessary reduction here will likely stall somewhat the
nascent recovery which we have seen developing in the last couple of
months. But that is something we will have to deal with. And we, i.e. the
world economy, will be able to do that.

AE: So you do not expect a prolonged period of stagnation or even a
recession for the US economy?

Nd: No, we would rather expect a continued period of slow growth”

In other words, we started the year mildly optimistic and never
changed that sentiment in the course of 2013. If we, hence,
were to quantify the value added of our speculative work, we
could argue that
we generated a 29.6 % value increase last
Because that is what the S&P 500-Index gained
throughout 2013.
It is obviously a lot easier to determine
a general market sentiment rather than
trying to replicate an index growth by
picking individual stocks or assets.
Consequently, the 29.6 % value added
claim of Noah denkt™ needs to be put
in perspective
Despite all the drama and anguish the fiscal cliff and the budget
sequester got some what resolved, - just as we predicted
Well, the can got only kicked down the
road. The main issue of entitlement
reform continues to be unresolved
Right from the start we had criticized Germany’s lackluster
support for
France’s intervention in Mali. That intervention is
now generally being seen as a success story.
No objection
On the Mali issue we had also proposed engaging the Tuareg
element inside the Islamist insurgency in order to find a more
sustainable peace in that country. It seems to us that this has
by and large happened.
The collaboration with peace-minded
Tuareg rebels is still quite timid.
We supported the idea of Trans-Atlantic Free Trade
Agreement. Negotiations on that have now begun.
That was a no-brainer.
We continuously defended the austerity politics of the EU
against its Keynesian critics. This austerity politics slowly
generating an economic upturn in countries like Spain and
True. But Noah denkt™ also said that
the failure to expel
Greece from the
Eurozone would eventually wreak havoc
to the sustainability of the EURO. That
hasn’t happened though, has it?

And it also needs to be acknowledged
that Noah denkt™ was and continues
to be only lukewarm about the
sustainability of the
central bank
funded recovery in the US
We firmly argued against voices in Germany that propagated a
split-up of the Euro into a Northern and Southern Euro. Gladly,
this proposal has substantially lost support by now.
The AFD continuous to be political
force to be reckoned with.
While being very critical of Mr. Hollande’s leadership quality we
also professed in early April that the worst might now be over as
far as his political errors are concerned.  And the French
economy has in deed improved during the rest of the year.
France’s recovery continues to be timid.
We felt that North Korea’s warmongering doesn’t need to be
taken all that serious. So far, that assessment has proved
That was a no-brainer, too
Noah denkt™ also defended the decision by the Egyptian army
to depose the elected President Mursi. And although the Muslim
Brotherhood continues to violently oppose that toppling of Mr.
Mursi, it appears as if the general public in Egypt is acquiescing
to the military’s move.  
This is a pretty daring interpretation. No
one knows what the wider Egyptian
public really thinks.
We firmly opposed a military “shot across the bow in Syria” as
initially advocated by President Obama. Happily, that hasn’t
Well done!
Earlier in 2012, we had called for a measure that would reign in
the behemoth like power that some big banks have. Eventually
a new Volcker Rule was passed in the US
While being in synch with limiting the
scope of banking empires, Noah
denkt™ continues to be
skeptical about
the quality of that new Volcker Rule.
As far back as 2008, we had argued that financial regulation
alone won’t be able to assure the soundness of financial
markets. Now,
the SEC had to admit that it won’t be able to
prosecute some big banks for their dubious role in the sub-
prime bubble.
Noah denkt™’s general stance here is
a no-brainer as well.
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The commentary and the reasoning that was provided on this page is for informational and/or educational purposes only and it is not
intended to provide tax, legal or investment advice. It should therefore not be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to
buy, or a recommendation for any security or any issuer by WL & his LSV or its Noah denkt™ Project. In fact, WL & his LSV
encourage the user to understand that he alone is responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy is
appropriate or suitable for him. And to leave no doubt as to what this means we urge our user to also note our extended
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