Noah denkt™  -
    Project for Philosophical Evaluations of the Economy
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Noah denkt™ has been bullish throughout 2010
Celebrating last year’s 13% increase in the S&P-Index, drafted and published on Jan. 5, 2011
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Well, 2010 has certainly been an up and down year for the financial industry. After all, it wasn’t only the American
economy that didn’t seem to get out of its doldrums. No, above and beyond that there was also the national debt
crisis of countries such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal, there was continuous talk about the viability of the EURO
currency and there was a substantial need for de-leveraging among private and public entities. It, therefore,
doesn’t come as a surprise if a good number of hedge funds have thrown in the towel in the course of this year.
Most notably among them was Stanley Druckenmiller, head of Duquesne Capital, who after, more than twenty
years in the industry admitted to the psychological toll that a lackluster economy was taking on him. In view of
such hardship and despair among fellow speculators,
we feel quite proud of ourselves for never having
abandoned, the bullish position on the economy which we entered into 2010.  And so we are happy to report that
our hard earned optimism was in deed validated by a year-end stock market rally which resulted in a 13%
increase year over year in the S&P-Index.  

Nevertheless, it seems to us, as if our greatest achievement this year lies in the fact that we have lend ourselves
to defend the EURO currency even though it didn’t appear to be a particularly wise thing to do at the time.
(For
details on this, please see our postings: “
Sometimes it’s reasonable to be stubborn”, “Eight reasons in favor of the EURO”, “Greece,
the EURO and the Mother of all Depressions”, “Zapatero is back”, to name just a few. For a comprehensive overview (albeit in
German) of our macroeconomic opinions this year
, please click here.)  

Now, obviously the final verdict on the long-term viability of EURO is still out. We feel though that China’s and the
IMF’s not entirely altruistic willingness to assist Europe in the resolution of its debt problems vindicates our earlier
sentiment according to which the international community has to play its part in disentangling the European nation
state challenge if push should in deed come to shove.
(“The fact of the matter is that the patchwork of European nation
states with all its diverse tensions and distractions is way too difficult to manage that it wouldn’t take repetitive worldwide interventions
in order to save this from exploding.” (See our posting: “
Greece, the EURO and the Mother of all Depressions”))   

As much as we have been on target in our macroeconomic pronouncements this year, it has to be admitted
though that our opinions about the stock market fate of individual companies has gone miserably wrong. In deed,
our scorecard in this respect is so bad
(see our detailed review in German) this year, that we should probably stop
looking
at individual companies altogether from here on. After all, it is true that we hardly ever research
companies in a detailed manner. Much rather do we express our opinion on the basis of a gut feeling which is why
there is in deed some room to argue that we should stop talking about things that, in the end, we truly do not
understand.

If there is an overall lesson to be drawn though from this year’s results, it is probably the acknowledgment that
the
superiority of a Golden Rule philosophy cannot be proven year by year on an annual basis. For that, one might
have to look at a longer timeframe, even though it has to be said too, that, in a super fast global marketplace,
eternity doesn’t seem to take all that long anymore.

We would like to leave you, therefore,
with a reference to our general “success page”, because it is here where
you can truly measure the validity of our basic theory.
You need Java to see this applet.
© Landei Selbstverlag, owned by Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards, Gerolstein, Germany. All rights reserved.

Reminder: Noah denkt™ is a project of Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards and his Landei Selbstverlag (WL & his LSV). Consequently, all
rights to the texts that have been published under the Noah denkt
brand name are reserved by WL & his LSV.

The commentary and the reasoning that was provided on this page is for informational and/or educational purposes only and it is not
intended to provide tax, legal or investment advice. It should therefore not be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to
buy, or a recommendation for any security or any issuer by WL & his LSV or its Noah denkt™ Project. In fact, WL & his LSV
encourage the user to understand that he alone is responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy is
appropriate or suitable for him. And to leave no doubt as to what this means we urge our user to also note our extended
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