Nothing more to add for the time being
Q&A about the economic status quo, published on Oct.15, 2007
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Q: Why has Noah denkt™ not published a new comment on the economy?
A: Because there is nothing more to add to what we have already said before.
Q: You mean, that there is nothing new that needs to be said about the record low US Dollar, the all time high in
the Dow Jones Index and the skyrocketing oil price?
A: Not really, other than that these developments are continuous sign of a precariously unbalanced economy.
Q: So Noah denkt™ still believes that the US economy is heading for a recession.
A: Yes, it does. Although it recognizes that the arrival of the next recession may not be as imminent as we
believed it to be one or two weeks ago.
Q: But doesn’t that mean, that your scaremongering has been proven out of place and unqualified?
A: We do not think so. After all, we still presume that those who do not see the dangerous path that the US
economy is on right now, will get burned terribly. And so it seems only wise to stay on the sidelines still. For too
much would one else have exposed oneself, that one could now still hope to profit from that.
Q: But aren’t you thereby foregoing the option of making quite a few bucks on the current rally?
A: Perhaps. But we are convinced that these bucks that can be made now will be lost just as fast as they have
been won. Because too much will this money be generated by a wave of opportunism, that its profiteer could now
still trust to further manage his proceeds appropriately.
Q: How so?
A: Because, for this opportunist it will be next to impossible to find the right time to exit this overly optimistic rally.
Q: So you do not believe that the economic indicators will indicate when the time has come to jump ship?
A: No, one cannot rely entirely on them.
Q: Why is that?
A: Because they cannot forecast the “unknown unknowns” that are out there.
Q: The “unknown unknowns”? You must be joking? If you are so afraid of life, than why do you live it in the first
place?
A: We are not afraid of life, but we much rather prefer to ultimately rely on our own intuition instead of building our
hope on statistical numbers.
Q: But isn’t it pretty irrational to follow some weird feelings rather than to look at the evidence.
A: Noah denkt™ actually is looking at the evidence. And this evidence tells us, that too many things are out of
sync to be able to trust them.
Q: No wonder they are out of sync given the unprecedented rise of China and India (not to mention the gains
technology that have been accrued). But all this doesn’t mean that things necessarily have to go bust, just
because there has been an unprecedented rise?
A: Well, we believe that it does mean exactly that.
Q: And why?
A: Because that is what life is like. It continuously needs to find a balance. So there will always be the bulls and
bears that slug it out with each other. For too dependent are they of each other that one of them could keep his
sanity without the other checking him.
Q: I accept that. But I would also say, that the bears and bulls are slugging it out right now as it is. And so one
cannot say that this growth pattern is lopsided. For too much are both sides trying to get it right on a day by day
basis, that one could now still accuse them of having lost their balance.
A: That is a pretty rosy view given the fact that the bulls have had the upper hand for more than four years.
Q: Well, the fact is that the bulls have had the upper hand for more than 200 years now. And surely you would not
say that all the technology gains that have been made in that time frame will have to disappear again, in order to
get the balance right.
A: Correct. We would not say this. What we would say however is that we would like to avoid the kind of disasters
that have intermittently marked this 200 year rise. For too much bloodshed has been therein that anyone could
now easily risk more of that.
Q: But, I do not see that kind of disaster on the horizon?
A: Well, we do.
Q: How so?
A: Because such a fundamental rise as we are seeing it now in Asia, is not going to happen without political and
social earthquakes which, at least, temporarily will have a huge value-destroying consequence.
Q: But agree, when I say that your disaster forecasting is quite hypothetical?
A: Yes, it is. But it is not one, whose reasoning is based entirely on fiction and trauma.
Q: Granted. It still seems too pessimistic to me. After all, democracy and open markets have quite a intelligent way
to absorb these kind of shocks?
A: That is correct. But even if absorbed these shocks are too painful and bloody that one could be so lighthearted
about them.
Q: I think that you guys need to see a shrink?
A: But didn’t you accept that our reasoning is not entirely build on a trauma?
Q: I did. But there might still be sufficient trauma in it for consulting with a specialist?
A: Why do you say that?
Q: Well, after all, you do not adequately benefit from the opportunities that life has to offer. For too little trust do
you have in the ability of man, to learn from his past mistakes that you could still view yourself now, as
appropriately enjoying that.
A: But we do not consider ourselves as unhappy. Nor can we be accused of not having sufficient trust. After all,
we are offering this service to the market in the good faith that it will eventually be compensated too.
Q: Still. This is such a long shot, that I worry about it being reasonable.
A: So who is the one between the two of us who is now worrying most. And who is the one who has the least faith
in the future?
Q: Okay, I think about it.
A. Please do that. Good bye.
Q&A about the economic status quo, published on Oct.15, 2007
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Q: Why has Noah denkt™ not published a new comment on the economy?
A: Because there is nothing more to add to what we have already said before.
Q: You mean, that there is nothing new that needs to be said about the record low US Dollar, the all time high in
the Dow Jones Index and the skyrocketing oil price?
A: Not really, other than that these developments are continuous sign of a precariously unbalanced economy.
Q: So Noah denkt™ still believes that the US economy is heading for a recession.
A: Yes, it does. Although it recognizes that the arrival of the next recession may not be as imminent as we
believed it to be one or two weeks ago.
Q: But doesn’t that mean, that your scaremongering has been proven out of place and unqualified?
A: We do not think so. After all, we still presume that those who do not see the dangerous path that the US
economy is on right now, will get burned terribly. And so it seems only wise to stay on the sidelines still. For too
much would one else have exposed oneself, that one could now still hope to profit from that.
Q: But aren’t you thereby foregoing the option of making quite a few bucks on the current rally?
A: Perhaps. But we are convinced that these bucks that can be made now will be lost just as fast as they have
been won. Because too much will this money be generated by a wave of opportunism, that its profiteer could now
still trust to further manage his proceeds appropriately.
Q: How so?
A: Because, for this opportunist it will be next to impossible to find the right time to exit this overly optimistic rally.
Q: So you do not believe that the economic indicators will indicate when the time has come to jump ship?
A: No, one cannot rely entirely on them.
Q: Why is that?
A: Because they cannot forecast the “unknown unknowns” that are out there.
Q: The “unknown unknowns”? You must be joking? If you are so afraid of life, than why do you live it in the first
place?
A: We are not afraid of life, but we much rather prefer to ultimately rely on our own intuition instead of building our
hope on statistical numbers.
Q: But isn’t it pretty irrational to follow some weird feelings rather than to look at the evidence.
A: Noah denkt™ actually is looking at the evidence. And this evidence tells us, that too many things are out of
sync to be able to trust them.
Q: No wonder they are out of sync given the unprecedented rise of China and India (not to mention the gains
technology that have been accrued). But all this doesn’t mean that things necessarily have to go bust, just
because there has been an unprecedented rise?
A: Well, we believe that it does mean exactly that.
Q: And why?
A: Because that is what life is like. It continuously needs to find a balance. So there will always be the bulls and
bears that slug it out with each other. For too dependent are they of each other that one of them could keep his
sanity without the other checking him.
Q: I accept that. But I would also say, that the bears and bulls are slugging it out right now as it is. And so one
cannot say that this growth pattern is lopsided. For too much are both sides trying to get it right on a day by day
basis, that one could now still accuse them of having lost their balance.
A: That is a pretty rosy view given the fact that the bulls have had the upper hand for more than four years.
Q: Well, the fact is that the bulls have had the upper hand for more than 200 years now. And surely you would not
say that all the technology gains that have been made in that time frame will have to disappear again, in order to
get the balance right.
A: Correct. We would not say this. What we would say however is that we would like to avoid the kind of disasters
that have intermittently marked this 200 year rise. For too much bloodshed has been therein that anyone could
now easily risk more of that.
Q: But, I do not see that kind of disaster on the horizon?
A: Well, we do.
Q: How so?
A: Because such a fundamental rise as we are seeing it now in Asia, is not going to happen without political and
social earthquakes which, at least, temporarily will have a huge value-destroying consequence.
Q: But agree, when I say that your disaster forecasting is quite hypothetical?
A: Yes, it is. But it is not one, whose reasoning is based entirely on fiction and trauma.
Q: Granted. It still seems too pessimistic to me. After all, democracy and open markets have quite a intelligent way
to absorb these kind of shocks?
A: That is correct. But even if absorbed these shocks are too painful and bloody that one could be so lighthearted
about them.
Q: I think that you guys need to see a shrink?
A: But didn’t you accept that our reasoning is not entirely build on a trauma?
Q: I did. But there might still be sufficient trauma in it for consulting with a specialist?
A: Why do you say that?
Q: Well, after all, you do not adequately benefit from the opportunities that life has to offer. For too little trust do
you have in the ability of man, to learn from his past mistakes that you could still view yourself now, as
appropriately enjoying that.
A: But we do not consider ourselves as unhappy. Nor can we be accused of not having sufficient trust. After all,
we are offering this service to the market in the good faith that it will eventually be compensated too.
Q: Still. This is such a long shot, that I worry about it being reasonable.
A: So who is the one between the two of us who is now worrying most. And who is the one who has the least faith
in the future?
Q: Okay, I think about it.
A. Please do that. Good bye.
| © Landei Selbstverlag, owned by Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards, Gerolstein, Germany. All rights reserved. Reminder: Noah denkt™ is a project of Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards and his Landei Selbstverlag (WL & his LSV). Consequently, all rights to the texts that have been published under the Noah denkt™brand name are reserved by WL & his LSV. The commentary and the reasoning that was provided on this page is for informational and/or educational purposes only and it is not intended to provide tax, legal or investment advice. It should therefore not be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security or any issuer by WL & his LSV or its Noah denkt™ Project. In fact, WL & his LSV encourage the user to understand that he alone is responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy is appropriate or suitable for him. And to leave no doubt as to what this means we urge our user to also note our extended Legal Notice. |
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