Noah denkt™ -
Project for Philosophical Evaluations of the Economy
Bullet Points with Q&A on a historic day in the US financial market, drafted and
published on Sept. 16, 2008
This weekend's historic bankruptcy of Lehman Bros, and the emergency sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America
warrant an in-depth consideration which will start with a few immediate conclusions that Noah denkt™ has drawn
from these events:
- Yesterday’s Dow Jones Index would have probably fallen a 1000 points if it had not been for the excellent
coverage of CNBC and Bloomberg. The fact of the matter is that this coverage provided a platform which
allowed market participants to vent their uncertainties and reflect on those of others. This process of
bringing the different view points into the open had a reassuring effect on all parties concerned and let off
enough steam to sooth the panic somewhat that undoubtedly had developed over the weekend. Noah
denkt™ feels that this another case in point for its call for a C-Span like business channel.
- Whereas Europe and Asia still have to prove that they can, in fact, let a big player die, the USA has now
demonstrated that is prepared to accept the consequences of its own free market stance. And so it has yet
again provided evidence for its uniqueness. Europa and Asia, however, have still to learn not to sweep
disruptive issues under the carpet.
- Given the fact, that the overly self-confident manner in which some financial experts like to present
themselves in the US has somewhat been brought to its knees by yesterday's events, we feel that the
beginning of the end of the current downward spiral has now begun. That does not mean though, that
there won’t be more hardship coming for US economy, and in certainly does not mean that there won’t be
more prominent victims to the current turmoil (i.e. Washington Mutual, AIG etc...). What it means is that this
was a breakthrough point and that from now on the healing forces will slowly gain the upper hand.
- Noah denkt™ does not believe that this healing process requires the US government to stay inactive in the
current AIG crisis. In other words, we do not feel that the use of tax payer money has necessarily to be
ruled off when it comes to dealing with the AIG problem. After all, the Lehman shock waves have done
enough to minimize the moral hazard that such an intervention would create.
- In hindsight it has to be acknowledged that the FED and the Treasury were probably right in taking a
middle of the road stance when rescuing some big players and letting others die. After all they have
thereby not only satisfied the system risk concerns but also addressed the moral hazard argument.
- Given the fact, that Noah denkt™ qualifies yesterday’s events as the beginning of the end of the downward
spiral, we have now decided to be more determined in our Wells Fargo opinion and change the latter to an
unambiguous “buy”. Furthermore, Noah denkt™ would now like to retract the additional comment it made
on the US Dollar a few days ago (see bottom of our "Lucky Punch" - press release) , and also return this position
to its original “buy” approval.
- Needless to say that, yet again, Noah denkt™ feels that its predictions have been mostly right (see our
"Success Stories") And so it is only reasonable that we would feel all the more encouraged to expect an
adequate recognition for that.
Now, obviously, some of the things that we have said here ask for a critical review of our stance and so we would
like to call in our Alter Ego now to do this job.
Question by Alter Ego of Noah denkt™(AE): Is it true that this comment constitutes an evolution of Noah
Answer by Noah denkt™ (Nd) : In deed, it is fair to argue, that Noah denkt™ has at least dropped one
fundamental principle that it has held up to now.
AE: You are referring to your assertion that you should never play with fire, because you might get your fingers
Nd: Correct, we have always felt, that you cannot predict exit points correctly, and that therefore you should never
jump on a fashion band waggon only to explore the limits there.
AE: And that is changing now?
Nd: Well, it is changing to the extent that we are now willing to bet on a US recovery while knowing fully well, that
this upturn will only precede the next downturn.
AE: In deed, this is what you have stated repeatedly. What then is it that gives you the moral right to become
more opportunistic here.
Nd: First of all, it is the fact that yesterday truly was a historic day in the markets. And we feel that it is only
legitimate that such historic events would also have a substantial effect on our own evolution.
AE: And the second point is?
Nd: The second point is, that we deem it to be fair to argue that our newly adopted bullish stance is still an early
bird view. And so we believe that by this that we are satisfying the contrarian expectation that we measure
ourselves against. For too much have we yet again rebelled here against a general trend, that we could now not
draw some moral mileage out of that.
AE: So do we have to conclude from this then, that you have become less apocalyptic about the potentially self-
destructive nature of capitalism and democracy?
Nd: No, we still stand by our existentialist philosophy. After all, we have never argued that the US would be ground
zero for our philosophy. Instead we have repeatedly made it known, that it is countries with substantial feudal
undercurrents where a constructive exploitation of one’s own suicidal tendencies is most required to keep
freedom and democracy intact.
AE: So which countries are you talking about here?
Nd: Germany, for instance.
AE: Well, you will be surprised to hear this but your Alter Ego is endorsing the reasoning that you have provided
Nd. So you do not feel that our evolution in the US is compromising our overall stance elsewhere?
Nd. How wonderful!
AE: In deed, it’s nice to be of the same opinion every now and then, correct?
Nd: Yes, it is. And thanks for that.
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