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Will France eventually leave the Euro project?
Dialogue with the Alter Ego about the outcome of the European elections in France, drafted and published on
May 25, 2014
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Question by Alter Ego of Noah denkt™ (AE): The outcome of Sunday’s elections for the European Parliament
in France is generally being viewed as a political earthquake. According to the figures available at this moment
the far-right National Front Party will come first in the polls with 25% of the national vote, followed by the center-
right UMP at 21% and the governing Socialist Party at a dismal 14%. Most commentators believe that the result
demonstrates France’s fundamental opposition both to
austerity politics and to the loss of national autonomy in
the context of globalization. Does Noah denkt™ agree with this analysis? After all, the abstention rate has been
unusually high at 57%.

Answer by Noah denkt™ (Nd): Yes, we absolutely agree with your summary.  In fact, it seems to us as if this
result could well signal
the beginning of the end of France’s participation in the Euro currency project.  

AE: Why do you say that?

Nd: Well, we have listened closely to the comments that prominent members of all the major parties have made
tonight once the voting results were made public and we haven’t heard anyone willing to defend a non-
Keynesian approach in Europe. Instead even the representatives of the UMP mentioned the need for a change
in Europe’s economic management in favor of publicly funded investment programs.  In other words, it has
become painfully clear that
no major force in French politics manages to understand that Keynesian strategies
no longer work in the highly integrated marketplace we live in. And hence, it appears to be by and large
inevitable that the next and perhaps final chapter of the Euro currency crisis will start now.

AE: But is it really feasible to believe that
France will be able to leave this common currency project? After all, it
can’t be denied that such a move would have unforeseeable consequences for the world financial system and
for France as well.  In other words, should we not presume that it will be the sheer force of financial market
panic which will eventually force France to come around and embrace the new free market reality instead?

Nd:  Well, don’t forget that France is one of the oldest countries in the world, perhaps even the oldest there is.
It will hence not surrender easily to the internationalist pressure. Any confrontation in this respect will be tough
and violent.

AE: Is it therefore not possible that Germany will accommodate some of the specific French needs for
protection and consequently lower its own rigid financial standards just to preserve peace and stability within
the Euro community?

Nd: If push comes to shove, the German government will certainly be prepared to leave economic reason aside
and adopt a few costly measure of questionable use only to help the Franco-German unity to survive. It is a
very open question though if the German national public on one side and the international financial markets will
go along with this. In other words, it will be quite likely that the costs of such psychological support for France
will be so high that they become unsustainable for the German economy.

AE: So what you are saying is that one hundred years after the outbreak of World War I, the Franco-German
alliance will be put under a very serious stress test with a completely open outcome?

Nd: Unfortunately, that is what it looks like tonight!
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Keywords:

European Election Results in France, political earthquake in France, anti-austerity vote in France,
France rejects free trade, the beginning of the end of the Euro currency, Will France leave the Euro
currency, anti-capitalist vote in France