Watch the development of the French-German government bond spread!

Observation on the Pro- vs. Contra-Keynesian debate of our times, drafted and published on May 24, 2012

The economic commentary surrounding yesterday’s EU summit in Brussels would have you believe that there is a pro-Keynesian, pro-Eurobonds consensus building in the international community and in the financial markets. After all, it appears now as if this consensus doesn’t just comprise your usual suspects, such as Hollande’s France, Monti’s Italy and Rajoy’s Spain, but rather also includes otherwise reasonable observers from Britain and the US which perhaps not so surprisingly like to see a bigger Euro spending on the part of the German tax payer.

And yet one shouldn’t fool oneself thinking that the international public opinion (or better the internationaly “published” opinon) on one hand and market sentiment on the other are necessarily one and the same thing. Because the computed market sentiment doesn’t just include the opinion of those who are media and establishment favourites. No, the computed market segment also reflects the interpretations of those who are not lucky enough to get courted by the powers that are but who, nevertheless, like to put their money where their mouth would be if only they were asked to open it. In that, it seems to us, as if there is only one and one indicator only, that can really tell us what markets think in the pro- and contra-Keynesian debate of our times. And, if we are not mistaken, that indicator would have to be the development of the yield spread between the German and the French 10 year government bonds. Because here it is, where commentators do not just vote with their opinion for what they think is right. No, here, they do in deed put their own livelihood on the line when deciding to back a German supply side approach or to go with a French demand stimulus tactic. And funnily enough, according to our own humble findings and calculations, this yield spread between the German 10 year bund and the French 10 year bond has widened from 106 basis points a month ago, to 110 basis points a week ago, to 132 basis points yesterday. Does that warrant any further questions? Do these numbers really ask for more jockeying in the court of public opinion? Or can we now take it that reason is already shaping up to prevail?

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Academic institutions unduly monopolize the notion of intellectual credibility

Statement on the need for self-made thinkers, published on May 23, 2012

The following is the copy of an email which we have sent on May 17 to University of Chicago Professor Raghuram Rajan. Professor Rajan is one of the leading supply side economists of our times. He is a former chief economist of the IMF. He gave the keynote speech at Alan Greenspan’s farewell reception. And he correctly questions the lasting impact of anti-cyclical government intervention which other economists such as Professor Krugman tend to continuously proffer these days. Our email to Professor Rajan reads as follows:

“Dear Prof. Rajan,

As an embattled Euro-zone European,  I believe the time has come to explicitly thank you for providing a much needed counter-argument to the sea of Keynesian populism that is engulfing us now more than ever. In particular, I would like to congratulate you for the observation that the structural problem in today’s debt ridden economies is not so much the lack of adequate demand but rather the lingering inability of these countries to produce enough useful and commercially viable things. (see your article: The True Lessons of the Recession, in Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/134863/raghuram-g-rajan/the-true-lessons-of-the-recession)

It is, in deed, correct that Western economies, perhaps with the notable exception of  Germany and California, have generally failed to generate a steady flow of relevant, perhaps even ground‑breaking, product and service innovations which would allow them to maintain a competitive edge in today´s super-competitive world market. And it is equally true that mature economies have by and large failed to educate their citizens in such a way that they could constructively adapt to and add sufficient value in a fast changing market-place.

Now, obviously, the real question that poses itself here is this: What do governments and societies really have to do culturally and politically to encourage a better performance both on the educational and on the innovative front. And the general answer so far has been:

a)      to grant tax credits to start-up companies

b)      to foster a venture capital industries (complete with Angel investors, incubators etc.)

c)      to encourage further cooperation between industry and universities

d)      to provide government sponsored retraining schemes to unemployed workers

e)      to promote the set-up of “elite”academic programs and universities

f)        to integrate more practical (case study etc.) aspects into otherwise rather theoretical academic study programs

g)      to accept immigration of highly skilled engineers and workers from abroad

h)      to increase flexibility in the labor law

i)        to reduce welfare entitlements (rise of pension entry age, co‑financing of health care services etc…)

j)        to employ a constant political rhetoric that advocates a “need for change” and a need to adapt to a “fast moving marketplace”

But if we are honest here, we have to admit that none of these measures has been sufficient to turn the tide in the structural loss of competitiveness which Western economies have been witnessing for a quite a while now. So, something else needs to happen to achieve that supply side breakthrough which some of us are working towards. And in my humble opinion, this supply side turnaround can only come by way of changing the criteria according to which the perception of credibility is being granted in the marketplace.

Because at this time, the intellectual and entrepreneurial credibility and credit worthiness of prospective innovators and applicants is more based on first appearance and circumstantial evidence rather than on the quality of content and the merit of argument. In this, standard wisdom in our mass society has it, that

a) previous success, no matter where, raises the possibility of future commercial success

b) academic degrees, by definition, enhance the capability to add value

c) degrees from prestigious universities naturally deserve more attention than those from not so prestigious organisations

d) employment experience with well known companies is better than career experience with less well known companies

e) and  better looks are generally better than not so good looks etc…

In fact, it is this standard operational procedure which banks, politicians, editors, strategic partners and human resource personnel apply when taking their decisions that leads our societies to heavily favor the established over the innovative, the incumbent over the new and the well groomed over the self‑made. It, hence, comes as no surprise that, when in doubt,  even the most free market-oriented governments tend to rescue banks and defend their national industry champions once the latter come under any kind of existential threat.

In other words, it seems crucial to me to understand that no mature economy will be able to maintain its competitive supply side edge if it continues to harbor an institutional skepticism towards self‑made leadership. And yet this skepticism towards self‑styled innovators has never been as huge as it is now. ( … perhaps with the exception of technological pioneers who have an easier time to explain what it is that they defend since their application tends to do most of the explanation for itself). I know what I am talking about here, since I have repeatedly experienced the habitual distrust which a no‑name tends to receive just for being what he is.

Perhaps, it would help if you could include that kind of reasoning into your own future work.

Best regards,

WL”

Do you find this message relevant? Do you view it worthy of a reply? – We certainly hope so. Did we ever get an answer to this email? – Of course not! And, yet it is this absence of a response which is at the heart of the distorsion that the supply side of Western economies is suffering from. Because, by now, it has become way too difficult for self-made entrepreneurs and pioneers to get any meaningful attention in the marketplace since the monopoly of credit worthiness which highy recognized academic institutions exercize therein make it next to impossible for those home-made innovators to get the strategic collaboration which they need.

Or to put it even differently: How should a no-name innovator ever be able to do his share to decrease the supply side distorsions which exist in our mature economies if even the leading supply side therorists aren’t willing to grant him a helping hand?

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Mariano Rajoy is inducted into Noah denkt™’s Hall of Fame

Statement, drafted and published on May 1, 2012

Listen to this. This is the original speak of Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy during a regional party meeting in Madrid on April 29. (See English translation below, footnote ***)

  “… cada viernes continuarán las reformas; el viernes que viene, también. (….) Hasta el fin de la legislatura. (…) Lo entiendo perfectamente. Muchas personas pueden no comprender en un determinado momento las decisiones que estamos tomando. Pero el problema es la crisis, la recesión, el desorden de las finanzas públicas. Hay que hacer cambios estructurales y tomar medidas integrales. (…) Ahora se oponen [hablando de la oposición] a todo, se oponen a las reformas. (…) No entienden, o no quieren entender, que para salir del pozo hay que hacer lo que ellos no hicieron. Hay que hacer exactamente lo contrario (…) [y] lo menos que podían hacer es callarse.” (excerpts recovered from El País, April 30, 2012)

In all this gloom which is surrounding the Euro crisis at this time, these words of Mariano Rajoy clearly represent the most encouraging pro-Euro statement we have heard in a long time. They deserve our highest praise. And they merit that Mr. Rajoy should be admitted into our Hall of Fame as of today. (See: www.noahdenkt.com/noahdenktwHALLOFFAME.html) Surely, fate and financial markets will eventually compensate Mariano Rajoy for all the courage, tenacity and wisdom which he is showing in his current role as captain of the beleaguered Spanish ship. Continue reading

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You have to be hopeful, even if there appears to be no hope

Observation on the state of the Euro after the first round of the presidential elections in France, drafted and posted on April 24, 2012

We would certainly be lying if we weren’t to admit that last day’s events in Europe (demise of the minority government in The Netherlands / result of the presidential election in France) have profoundly shaken our otherwise solid pro-Euro convictions. And since everything is up in the air at this point, it probably makes sense to establish once again what appears to be clear now:

1)      There is no denying that a majority of citizens in Europe is unwilling to understand that the European welfare state needs to be considerably reduced if the Euro-zone wants to deal with the global market reality effectively. And since people are not prepared to accept there is a need for more private initiative and responsibility, it is equally clear that they won’t be willing to deal with their current hardship constructively. In other words, they will continue to waste their energy fighting a reality they don’t like rather than to embrace that. And that in turn will result in the fact that the lackluster economy of the Euro-zone is here to stay for quite some additional time to come.

2)      Since it is the prime desire, however, of a majority of European citizens to be protected from the hardship of competition rather than to deal with it head-on, it is quite reasonable to presume that new economic stimulus programs won’t be successful in kick starting the economy. After all, it is true that these programs only work if they serve as a catalyst to what is already there (i.e. a desire to pro-actively tackle a perceived misery). In any other case, where people prefer to lick their wounds rather than to take the bull by its horns, this government spending which is hard to come by anyway, will result in a tremendous waste. Continue reading

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Please do not choose to live in a fantasy land!

Observation on the French presidential election, first drafted on April 12, published on April 13, 2012 

On April 22 and May 6, French voters, will have the chance to decide whether they want to live in a protective fantasy land (Hollande, Le Pen, Mélenchon, Joly) or whether they want to accept the fact that there is no hiding from the hard-knuckled world we are actually living in. Hopefully, they will decide to do the right thing. After all, it is really hard to see, how any nation can seriously expect to successfully reduce its exposure to this world when the vast majority of this world’s citizens (including those in France) is otherwise living a highly interconnected lifestyle. Just witness the fact that the majority of the world population aspires to possess the same global brands, watches pretty much the same movies, the same sit-coms, tunes in to the same 24 hour news cycle and discusses all that on the same Facebook and Twitter platform. – But still, some people think they can have it both ways, i.e. own 3G cell phones and get a nose job while at same time reducing financial speculation and nationalizing local banks. So, for all those who have a hard time to grow up we would like to explain the following: Continue reading

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The hypocrites of “El País”

An observation on the real reason why the Spanish economy is slow to turn around, first drafted on April 5, published in April 7, 2012

 

“Los compradores de deuda pública apenas han dado 100 días de gracia al Gobierno de Mariano Rajoy, que este miércoles volvió a resaltar que ha hecho “en tres meses más reformas que en ocho años”. Pero ni las reformas ni el proyecto de Presupuestos detallado este martes han logrado “recuperar la confianza de los inversores”, uno de los objetivos confesos del ministro de Hacienda, Cristóbal Montoro.” El País, 5 de abril, 2012 ( see http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2012/04/04/actualidad/1333568974_603052.html)

 

Check this out! After having fought Mariano Rajoy’s austerity measures every step of the way, after having supported the Spanish unions’ call for a general strike, after having campaigned heavily against the labor law reform project that Rajoy’s government is pursuing to bring down unemployment rate and after forcing the Spanish government to renegotiate its de-leveraging goals with the EU, the leading Spanish newspaper “EL País” now has the guts to blame the bad result of Wednesday’s bond auction on Mr. Rajoy’s supposedly failed crisis management. Have you ever seen greater hypocrisy than this?

Should it not be “El País’s” first obligation now to accept that it is part of its own work that the PP-led government had no other option but to soften the deficit reduction goals for 2012? And should the paper not understand now that it was largely due to its own relentless resistance to any recent austerity proposal that the markets are now losing faith in Spain’s ability to come to grips with their burgeoning deficit?  But what do they do? Do they show a sign of contrition, humility or even inflexion? No, not at all! Instead “El País” has no qualms but to go right back to their old game of whipping up, popular anti-PP-feelings when what is really needed here is unity in the face of national emergency.

Now, obviously, this outrage of ours should best be leveled at “El País” directly. But since it is our experience that they publish only those letters that are in line with their overall views ( – which by they way doesn’t stop them from criticizing the Pope for not meeting up with the victims of church-related child sex abuse…), we have no other option but to take this right to our own site. Because the matter of the fact is that it is precisely this lack of honesty, this lack of open-mindedness which the likes of El País tend to show whenever it comes to defending their own bleeding heart convictions that is the ultimate cause why Spain doesn’t seem to be able to get back on a growth path. Because it is so much easier, to defend the old ideological alliances, the old cozy ways of securing one’s income rather then confronting the new harsh realities of an unstoppable global market-place.

So, if you wonder why the markets have lost some of their faith in Mr. Rajoy’s ability to bring down the national debt, then you need to look no further then to your left.

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Keep a close eye on China!

Dialogue with the Alter Ego on the slowdown of China’s economy, first drafted on March 23, published on March 24, 2012

Question by Alter Ego of Noah denkt™ (AE): How worried is Noah denkt™ about the news coming out of China which suggests the economy is cooling down there?

Answer by Noah denkt™ (Nd):  Well, this is certainly something that is not to be taken lightly.

AE: Why? Isn’t it true that a 7,5 % growth is still a lot of growth? And it is also not true that China’s development potential hasn’t been exhausted yet?

Nd: Perhaps. But it is also true that any pressure on income and living conditions in China can soon turn into social unrest which might then trigger an implosion of the entire political system there. In other words, what we are seeing there now could easily turn into the beginning of the end of the current communist regime in China.

AE: But wouldn’t that be a welcome development?

Nd: In a way, yes.  Although it also needs to be recognized that such an implosion would certainly not happen peacefully, and it would clearly take a lot of time until a new paradigm in China is firmly established.

AE: What would this mean for the world economy?

Nd: This would have disastrous effects for the world economy, especially at this point in time where neither the US nor Europe is out of its own dire straits

AE: But is it really likely that it will come to this? Do you really believe that the Chinese regime will implode over the cooling down of the economy which we are seeing now?

Nd: Perhaps not. But we still advise everyone to keep a close eye on the development there.

AE: What sense does it make to be pretty worried about China and to alert to the potentially devastating effects of a blow-up there, when you do not change your core stock market sentiment? Continue reading

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The troika doesn’t seem to get the mix right

Dialogue with the Alter Ego on austerity in Greece, first drafted on March 1, published on March 2, 2012

“Food stamps and other transfers aren’t necessarily bad ideas, but there’s no evidence they spur growth.“ Harvard Economist Robert J. Barro, Wall Street Journal Online, Aug. 24, 2011

“New economic research shows why lower tax rates do far more to spur growth.” Stanford  Economist, Michael J. Boskin, WSJ online, Dec. 1, 2010

Question by Alter Ego of Noah denkt™ (AE): A lot of wise men (Timothy Garton Ash among them) argue these days that austerity alone won’t do the job in Greece but that it is necessary to offer a “growth perspective” to that country. What is Noah denkt™’s take on that?

Answer by Noah denkt™ (Nd): Well, we can see where this is coming from. After all, it is even clear to us that you can’t squeeze more austerity out of the Greek people who have already sacrificed so much over the last three years.

AE: In other words, you are endorsing the idea of stimulus program in Greece similar to that of the Marshall Plan just after WWII?

Nd: We continue to be skeptical about government-led stimulus programs. It seems to us as if the success of these programs is pretty questionable. Just think about the lack of results which Obama’s Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 ($ 787 billion) produced. The whole thing turned out to be an incoherent jumble sale of different initiatives that in the end served to no other purpose but to peddle to the interest of different political constituencies.

AE: But there are also examples of government-led programs which in deed had pretty amazing success. Witness Obama’s auto industry rescue. That worked out pretty nicely. And do not forget that the Marshall Plan was a huge success too, particularly in Germany. So does it really make sense to be overly ideological in your reasoning here?

Nd: Well, if you look deeper your will find that there is quite a bit of difference between the mindset of post-war Germany and that of Greece today. The reason why the Marshall Plan worked so incredibly well in Germany has a lot to do with the fact that the German people were deeply ashamed and humiliated by the mess that they had created in prior years. Hence, they were jumping at the first opportunity to immerse themselves into a reconstruction project which would allow them to at least for the time being forget the disgrace which they had heaped upon themselves. In Greece, however, you are looking at a completely different picture. Here the people are angry and defiant. They do not understand and they do not want to understand why they are being made to suffer. Much rather do they fell, as if it is others who are to be blamed for the mess that their country finds itself in these days. Under these circumstances it is by no means clear whether a Marshall-type of plan will have the same success in Greece as it had back when in Germany.

AE: If that is not the solution then, what are you suggesting instead? Continue reading

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The correlation between unemployment and suicide

Dialogue with the Alter Ego on the prospects of successfully reinventing yourself, first drafted on Feb. 26, published on Feb. 28, 2012

“… el paro de larga duración provoca el desprecio de uno mismo, la distancia respecto a (y a menudo de parte de) los demás, la devaluación del estatus en el seno de la familia, la pérdida de confianza y el debilitamiento en la competición social, la aceptación cada vez más resignada de la degradación de las condiciones de vida. Lo más importante es el sentimiento de derelicción, esto es, de desamparo, abandono, inutilidad social, que invade al ser humano así humillado. Lo más duro es el despertar diario sin nada que hacer; el vivir otro día más el fracaso social, no ver el fin del túnel, el fin del ser nada. Lo más indigno es pedir ayuda, cobrar el paro, cuando uno quiere trabajar.”

Sami Naïr, Periodista y Comentarista

Question by Alter Ego of Noah denkt™ (AE): In a fantastic comment (“Crisis y Suicidios”, El País, Feb 25, 2012/ see:  http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/02/24/actualidad/1330116373_390828.html), Sami Naïr alerts to the fact that the current rise of long-term unemployment in Europe will almost certainly lead to a rise in the number of suicides. To demonstrate his point he cites a study by French psychiatrist Michel Debout, which shows that the number of suicides in France has been going up ever since the financial/debt crisis broke in 2008. Before that it had been going down steadily from 1987-2008). Does Noah denkt™ agree that there is a connection between a rise in the number of long term-unemployed and a rise in the number of suicides?

Answer by Noah denkt™ (Nd): There is undoubtedly a correlation between the two. The question however is, whether one, i.e. the long-term unemployment, is the actual cause for the other, i.e. the number of suicides.

AE: In other words, you doubt that long term-unemployment has the depressive consequences that Marie Jahoda, Paul Felix Lazarsfeld and Hans Zeisel elaborated in their groundbreaking study “The unemployed of Marienthal” (1933)?

Nd: No, we do not doubt that long-term unemployment has the devastating effects mentioned in the quote above. But it seems to us as if it is inadequate to say that unemployment actually causes suicides. Much rather does it appear to us as if it is the unemployed’s perception that there is no way out of their current misery which is causing them to consider suicide. In other words, the real reason why the long-term unemployed are more likely to commit suicide is the fact that they find it quite impossible to professionally and commercially reinvent themselves and be successful with that. Or, to put it even differently, it isn’t the downsizing as such which is at the heart of the problem here, it is much rather our societies’ inability to welcome the new, to open up to the as yet non-established and to give a fair hearing to those who haven’t yet been endorsed by the powers that are which is making life difficult for those who find themselves marginalized.

AE: It is, obviously inevitable, especially in a mass society, that you need to be perceived as credible before credit can be granted to you. And it is also inevitable that a lot of newcomers are being perceived as not credible enough simply because they are what they are, i.e. newcomers. Does it, hence, make sense to question the wisdom of that, when mass society really has no other option but to operate on the basis of circumstantial evidence (“appearance”) when deciding whom to grant its favors?

Nd: Well, don’t you think that a society which supposedly operates on the basis of merit should find a way to discover this merit even if the number of applications for that is extravagantly high? Continue reading

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Monti’s Letter to the EU Commission

Dialogue with the Alter Ego on the above, first drafted on Feb. 23, published on Feb. 24, 2012

“LA REVUELTA CONTRA LA HEGEMONÍA FRANCO-ALEMANA EN LA UE GANA TERRENO… La hegemonía del eje francoalemán en le diseño de la politica económica european, que tan ineficiente ha resultado frente a la crisis, está encontrando una incipiente y creciente contestación ….” El País, Feb. 23, 2012

Question by Alter Ego of Noah denkt™ (AE): Has Noah denkt™ taken note of the pro-growth/pro-stimulus letter that 12 EU-countries (including Britain, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Finland, Ireland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Sweden, Poland, Latvia and Estonia) have sent to the European Commission?

Answer by Noah denkt™ (Nd): Are you talking about Mario Monti’s initiative that details several policy areas where more government-inspired reform and investment might make sense, especially in these austerity times of ours?

AE: Correct!

Nd: Well, we haven’t received a copy of the letter but we have read about it in the press.

AE: And what do you make of this proposal?

Nd: If it is true that the letter calls for

  • a strict application of Basel III rules on bank capital requirements,
  • EU-wide competition in the services sector (which, by the way is pretty  regulated in Germany)
  • further action to reduce the number of regulated professions in Europe’ (another feature of the German economy )
  • the elimination of “unjustified regulatory barriers.”
  • the conclusion of free trade deals with India, Canada, Ukraine, and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
  • the pursuit of trade talks with Japan and Latin America.
  • the development of a digital economy with better copyright rules and more broadband;
  • the development of a more unified European energy market;
  • support for research and start-up companies, through an EU-wide venture capital regime;
  • and a reduction of EU red tape

(see: http://news.monstersandcritics.com/business/news/article_1691965.php/12-EU-countries-propose-growth-plan-but-not-Germany-and-France)

then, the only thing we would object to is the second but last point which, in our reading, suggests that bureaucrats should run venture capital funds.

AE: Okay, so what is your overall judgment then of this letter? Is it a good initiative or is it one that is not so welcome? Continue reading

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